If we were playing a game of pre-WW2 and I were Germany in 1938, I might make an argument structured like this:
"Germany will successfully annex Austria. This will happen because:
1) There is a large, friendly Nazi party active in Austria that has laid the groundwork
2) Austria has no armed forces to speak of to resist
3) The Western Powers are in no position, economically, militarily, or geographically to prevent me from doing so."
This one would probably be VERY STRONG.
Or, the USSR might argue:
"The USSR will send aircraft and military advisors to Czechoslovakia to help defend it against potential German aggression. This will happen because:
1) The Czechs are frightened by German aggression in Austria
2) The Germans are in no position to prevent this from happening
3) Stalin needs to increase his reputation for resisting fascism after the debacle in Spain"
This one would probably be Moderate.
In the same game you might get these arguments:
Italy argues:
"Italy invades Greece successfully and conquers it in 5 weeks with minimal casualties. This happens because:
1) The Italian Army is in Albania
2) The Greek army is demoralized"
I would rate this as weak or moderate.
In the same turn, the British Argue that
"Britain reinforces Greece with troops from Egypt to defend against fascist aggression. This succeeds because:
1) British troops are right across the mediterranean in Egypt so can move quickly.
2) The Royal Navy is dominant in the eastern mediterranean, so no one can intefere
3) The Greeks will welcome the support, as they are very worried about Italian aggression in the Balkans.
4) Greece is very defendable one British Troops arrive."
I would rate this as Strong, probably. So, both arguments have a "roll off" until one argument succeeds and one fails, then the umpire adjudicates exactly what happens. In this case if the British succeed and the Italian fail, then the British rush troops to Greece and stop the Italian invasion cold. If the Italians succeed and the British fail, then the British do not arrive in time and Greece falls to the Italians.
Hope this helps.
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